Intuitive Forecasting provides extended capabilities in forecast generation that allow you to:
- Improve the accuracy of your forecasts
- Save time and money
- Improve planning
- Cut inventory costs
- Decrease stockouts
Intuitive Forecasting provides you with the ability to generate the forecasts based on your usage data and many different forecasting models. This data is then used by the Intuitive planning modules to generate your demand requirements based on this forecast. Complete analysis of forecast to actual is available in the Intuitive planning functions.
Intuitive Advanced Forecasting is easy to learn and easy to use. It does not require a background in statistics or forecasting. In fact, creating accurate forecasts is literally as easy as clicking a mouse. You provide the historic data, and the built-in expert system analyzes your data, selects the appropriate forecasting technique, and calculates the forecast.
Alternatively, if you want to dictate the forecasting approach, Intuitive Forecasting provides a complete range of forecasting models and all of the diagnostic aids you need. Generating reports, viewing graphs, adding your judgment, saving to spreadsheets/text files/databases, collaborating with others, interfacing with your SCM, ERP or other planning system is all at your fingertips.
Intuitive Forecasting supports multiple forecasting methodologies:
Twelve different Holt-Winters exponential smoothing models are provided to accommodate a wide range of data characteristics. The robustness of exponential smoothing makes it ideal when there are no leading indicators and the data are too short or volatile for Box-Jenkins. You can select the model and set the parameters yourself or let Intuitive Forecasting do it automatically.
For stable data, Intuitive Forecasting supports a multiplicative seasonal Box-Jenkins model. The model can be built completely automatically or interactively using a full range of screen-oriented diagnostics.
Low Volume & Intermittent Demand Models
Croston’s intermittent demand model and discrete data models are provided to accommodate low volume and “sparse” data (i.e. data where the demand is often zero).
Curve fitting provides a quick and easy way to identify the general form of the curve which your data are following. Intuitive Forecasting supports four types of curves: straight line, quadratic, exponential, and growth (s-curve).
For very short data or extremely volatile data, Intuitive Forecasting includes moving average models. More advanced methodologies are also available:
- Dynamic regression
- Event models
- Multiple level models
- Census X-11 seasonal decomposition
- Batch forecasting
Diagnose Your Models
Intuitive Forecasting provides a standardized set of diagnostic screens to help you compare and evaluate models. You get graphs of the residuals and the error autocorrelation function, as well as multiple key numeric statistics.
Be Collaborative in Forecasting
The Intuitive Forecasting override facility allows you to adjust the statistical forecasts in a spreadsheet-like display or directly on a graph. You can type in new values, change by a percentage or increment/decrement the selection. A handy comment field and multiple override rows allow you to document your changes and collaborate with colleagues. Changes made at any level of the forecasting hierarchy will automatically reconcile all levels. The ability to save and recall your override files eliminates the need to re-key overrides as new data are added and statistical forecasts are revised.